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IC 8822 



Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1980 



¥ <M*r 



Availability of Critical Scrap 
Metals Containing Chromium 
in the United States 

Wrought Stainless Steels 
and Heat-Resisting Alloys 



By Charles L. Kusik, Harry V. Makar, 
and Michel R. Mounier 



#mi 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 



11 C^A^JL^^' £#513. 



Information Circular 8822 

Availability of Critical Scrap 
Metals Containing Chromium 
in the United States 

Wrought Stainless Steels 
and Heat-Resisting Alloys 



By Charles L. Kusik, Harry V. Makar, 
and Michel R. Mounier 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Cecil D. Andrus, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 

Lindsay D. Norman, Acting Director 



As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior 
has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural 
resources. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water re- 
sources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and 
cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for 
the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses 
our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is 
in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major re- 
sponsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who 
live in Island Territories under U.S. administration. 




/^ 



& 



nr 



^ 






This publication has been cataloged as follows: 



Kusik, Charles L 

Availability of critical scrap metals containing chromium in 
the United States. Wrought stainless steels and heat-resisting 
alloys. 

(Bureau of Mines information circular) 

Bibliography: p. 37. 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:8822 

1. Scrap metals— United States. 2. Chrome Steel. 3- Heat resistant 
alloys. I. Makar, Harry, joint author. II. Mounier, Michel R., joint 
author. III. Title. IV. Series: United States. Bureau of Mines. Informa- 
tion circular; 8822. 



TN 2 95.Ur ~[TS214] 622s [333.7] 80.607147 



For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 
Washington. D.C. 20402 



16 



CONTENTS 

^ Page 

"^Abstract 1 

^ Introduction 1 

Acknowledgments 2 

Approach 3 

Overview 3 

Industry subsectors 4 

Data sources 6 

Methodology 6 

Apparent domestic consumption calculation 6 

Estimates of prompt industrial stainless steel scrap 7 

Estimates of obsolete scrap generation 7 

Scrap generation versus collection , 9 

Scrap imports and exports 9 

Estimates of uncollected stainless steel scrap 10 

Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products 10 

Domestic shipments r 10 

Net imports 11 

Equation for apparent domestic consumption 12 

Scrap generation and collection 12 

Estimates of scrap generation 12 

Prompt industrial scrap 12 

Obsolete scrap 15 

Production of manufactured goods 15 

Product lifetimes 19 

Obsolete scrap calculation 22 

Total stainless steel scrap generated 22 

Scrap collection (published data) 22 

Scrap receipts 22 

Foreign trade 22 

Total prompt industrial and obsolete scrap collected 24 

Unrecovered chromium values 24 

Calculation of unrecovered fraction 24 

Prompt industrial scrap 24 

Downgrading 26 

Obsolete scrap collection 27 

Reconciliation 28 

Estimates of potential error 29 

Scrap imports 29 

Yields in manufacture 29 

Prompt industrial scrap generation 30 

Average lifetimes 30 

' V^ Imports and exports of manufactured goods 31 

Cn Corrosion 31 

Superalloy downgrading 32 

Allocation of steel mill products 32 

Future work 32 

Pro j ections 33 



XX 



CONTENTS — Continued 

Page 

Summary 35 

References 37 

Appendix A . — Background 38 

Appendix B. — Prompt industrial scrap generation rates 45 

Appendix C. — Stainless steel consumption for manufactured goods in 1957. 46 

Appendix D. — Average age of obsolete goods 50 

Appendix E. — Obsolete and prompt industrial scrap collected 51 

ILLUSTRATIONS 

1. Diagram illustrating flow of stainless steel products and stainless 

steel scrap between producers and consumers 5 

2 . Domestic shipments of stainless steel 11 

3 . Net imports of stainless steel 12 

4. Residual elements in carbon steel manufactured in the United States. 26 

5. Trendline projections of apparent domestic consumption and uncol- 

lected and downgraded stainless steel scrap 34 

6. Estimated flow of stainless steel products and stainless steel scrap 

between producers and consumers in 1977 36 

TABLES 

1. Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products in 

1977 13 

2. Estimated stainless steel prompt scrap generation in 1977 ,. . . . 14 

3. Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products in 

1967 16 

4. Adjusted distribution of stainless steel mill products by market 

classification in 1967 17 

5. Adjusted distribution of stainless steel in manufactured goods by 

market classification in 1967 18 

6. Calculated use of stainless steel in manufactured goods by market 

classification 20 

7 . Estimated obsolete scrap generation in 1977 21 

8. Estimated total stainless steel scrap generation 22 

9 . U.S. stainless steel scrap exports 23 

10. Ferrous scrap imports in 1977 24 

11 . Domestic scrap collection 24 

12 . Chromium in purchased carbon steel scrap in 1977 27 

13. Estimated obsolete stainless steel scrap recovered in 1977 28 

14. Reconciliation of reported values with calculated values of stain- 

less steel scrap recovered for chromium values in 1977 29 

15 . Potential error summary 33 



XXX 



TABLES — Continued 

Page 

A-l. Chemical compositions of wrought chromium-nickel austenitic stain- 
less steels 39 

A-2 . Chemical compositions of wrought martensitic chromium stainless 

steels 40 

A-3. Chemical compositions of wrought ferritic chromium stainless 

steels 41 

A-4. Major types of stainless steel produced 42 

A-5. Specifications for stainless steel and heat-resisting alloy scrap. 43 

B-l. Prompt industrial scrap generation for selected years 45 

C-l. Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products in 

1957 47 

C-2. Adjusted distribution of stainless steel mill products by market 

classification in 1957 48 

C-3. Adjusted percent distribution of stainless steel in manufactured 

goods by market classification in 1957 49 



AVAILABILITY OF CRITICAL SCRAP METALS CONTAINING 
CHROMIUM IN THE UNITED STATES 

Wrought Stainless Steels and Heat-Resisting Alloys 1 

by 

Charles L. Kusik, 2 HarryV. Makar, 3 and Michel R. Mounier 4 



ABSTRACT 

As part of an effort to establish the extent of the domestic chromium 
supply that could be exploited in case of adverse changes in international 
chromium production and trading patterns, a two-part study was conducted 
for the Bureau of Mines, to assess the domestic availability of critical 
metals in scrap containing significant amounts of chromium. This report 
describes the part of the study that deals with wrought stainless steels 
and heat-resisting alloys. Data were collected on types of scrap, sources, 
quantities, and ultimate disposition, leading to the conclusion that in 1977 
about 62,000 tons of contained chromium was unrecycled. Unrecovered obsolete 
stainless steel scrap accounts for most of these uncollected chromium values. 
Error margins in the amount of uncollected scrap are estimated to be 10 to 
20 percent. 

INTRODUCTION 

Although world chromium resources are ample for the foreseeable future, 
political and economic events have raised doubts about the uninterrupted 
availability and reliability of chromium supplies. Chromium is used exten- 
sively in the metallurgical industry and has no technically viable substitute 
in such critical applications as the nickel-base superalloys required for 
aircraft gas turbine engines . 

The United States is now almost totally dependent on foreign resources 
for its chromium mineral needs, although it does derive a portion of its 
metallic chromium supplies through recycling of scrap materials . A large 
quantity of chromium in alloy scrap, primarily stainless steel, is currently 
recycled annually. However, a large amount of chromium in scrap is not 
recycled domestically and hence is lost to the industry. Some of this scrap 
is downgraded into lower value applications where the chromium is either lost 

■'•This report was compiled and prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, 

Mass., under Bureau of Mines contract J0188170. 
2 Program manager, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Mass. 
3 Research supervisor, Avondale Research Center, Bureau of Mines, Avondale, Md.; 

technical project officer for contract J0188170. 
^Project staff, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Mass. 



in processing or could be replaced by less critical elements. Most chromium- 
bearing scrap is now recycled or refined to recover more valuable elements 
such as nickel, cobalt, and molybdenum, with chromium recovery only of sec- 
ondary importance. The technology does not now exist to economically separate 
chromium from complex Ni-Fe-Cr alloys. Such a process would provide chromium 
values which could be used in times of national emergency. The Federal 
Emergency Management Agency (formerly Federal Preparedness Agency) sponsored 
this research through the Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, 
to develop such processes. The details of the research to develop such new 
processes will be described in separate reports at a future date. 

This study was divided into two parts, each covering one of two broad 
alloy categories . Information Circular 8821 (3) 5 covers superalloys and cast 
heat- and corrosion-resisting alloys, and this publication covers wrought 
stainless steels and heat-resisting alloys. This division, although arbi- 
trary, was convenient and justified because the respective alloy producers, 
end-use industries, and methods of recycling are rather distinct. Although 
large amounts of chromium are used in alloy steels and cast irons, these 
materials were not included in the survey; their chromium level is too lean 
to justify metal separation or recycling for their chromium content. 

Thus, the studies upon which these reports are based are intended to pro- 
vide an assessment of current U.S. commercial practices for recycling scrap 
containing significant concentrations of chromium. The domestic availability 
of wrought stainless steel and wrought heat-resisting alloy scrap is analyzed 
in this study. These materials are produced in high-volume production units 
by the specialty steel industry and are used in many sectors of our economy, 
ranging from appliances, automobiles, and architectural applications to energy 
conversion systems, petrochemical production, and aircraft structural parts. 
Information presented in the present report includes identification of the 
types of scrap, sources, quantities and ultimate disposition; for example, 
direct recycling, intermediate refining or disposal. In the methodology 
developed, chromium-containing metals are followed from the time they are 
shipped by alloy melters to the time they return as scrap . Data collected 
for the year 1977 and previous years are projected to the year 1990. Major 
losses are identified and estimated. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

The assistance of numerous individuals, companies, and organizations was 
invaluable in gathering and interpreting information and data for this study. 
While space limitations preclude giving credit to all who contributed, the 
authors wish to express their gratitude to the membership and staff of the 
following organizations for their cooperation and contributions : American 
Iron and Steel Institute, Washington, D.C.; Steel Service Center Institute, 
Cleveland, Ohio; Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc., Washington, D.C.; 
and the U.S. Department of Commerce. 



Underlined numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of references 
preceding the appendixes. 



We are deeply indebted to Dr. Jack Westbrook and his colleagues of the 
Materials Information Service, General Electric Company, Schenectady, N.Y., 
for insights provided on scrap generation in fabrication operations. 

Because of the many different domains of expertise relevant to this study, 
we wish to express our appreciation to numerous specialists within Arthur D. 
Little, Inc., for the insights provided to this program, and especially to 
Edward L. Pepper, Richard W. Hyde, Stanley V. Margolin, Frank M. Yans, and 
Edward R. Squibb. Special recognition is given to Louis Lee and Annette 
Nemetz for their computational assistance in developing background data. 

For the guidance provided to this program, we would like to express our 
appreciation to the following Bureau of Mines personnel: John L. Morning, 
Frank M. Naughton, and Andrew S. Prokopovitsh. 

APPROACH 

Overview 

Scrap is continuously generated, whether there is a demand for it or not; 
it is an inherent byproduct of metal fabrication and also an inescapable con- 
sequence of wear, tear, and obsolescence of manufactured goods whether made 
of stainless steel or of other materials. 

Scrap and other recycled materials, such as processed flue dust, grinding 
swarf, and skulls, are used by stainless steelmakers ("melters") along with 
virgin materials. Recyclers collect just enough scrap to meet demand. Thus, 
all scrap is not necessarily recycled. Purchased scrap has a much wider range 
of chemical composition than the intended products: alloy-free carbon steel 
is used to dilute the virgin materials , and superalloy scrap may provide such 
alloying elements as nickel, chromium, molybdenum, cobalt, and tungsten. 

The average stainless steel mill melts considerably more scrap than 
virgin materials. Over 95 percent of wrought stainless and heat-resisting 
alloys is melted and partially refined in electric arc furnaces, followed by 
pouring into an argon-oxygen decarburization (AOD) Vessel, where most refining 
and chemistry adjustment takes place. The AOD process, like the basic oxygen 
furnace (BOF) for steelmaking, is autogenous and is even sufficiently exo- 
thermic to allow for small additions of perfectly identified metallics such 
as home scrap. Further industry background is provided in appendix A. 

To avoid confusion between finished products from steel mills (sheet, 
strip, bars, etc.) and finished products made in manufacturing and fabri- 
cating operations (automobiles, utensils, etc.), we have used the term "steel 
mill products" to apply to shipments from steel mills and the term "manufac- 
tured and fabricated products" to apply to products shipped to ultimate 
consumers . 

Because prompt scrap generation rates differ depending on the product 
manufactured, a distinction is made between finished products from steel mills 
and semifinished products (billets, blooms, sheet bars, etc.) produced and 
shipped by steel mills. 

325-969 0-80-2 



Recognizing that steel mill products are often classified as primary 
products, this designation has been avoided in order to eliminate confusion 
between products made in the primary industries (such as those based upon 
virgin materials) and secondary industries (such as those based upon scrap 
materials) . 

The term "scrap" is used to define stainless steel whenever it is no 
longer destined to serve a useful function in a product. Some of the scrap 
so generated may be collected; other such scrap may be uncollected or dis- 
carded. Thus, a distinction between scrap generated, scrap collected for 
recycling, and scrap that goes uncollected is made. The term "ton" through- 
out this report refers to a net (short) ton of 2,000 pounds. 

Scrap generated within the steel mill complex, often referred to as 
"home scrap" or "run-around scrap," is not considered within the scope of 
this study. Scrap generated in fabricating operations or manufacturing 
operations is labeled here as "prompt industrial scrap" or simply "prompt 
scrap;" it is often referred to as "new scrap" in other studies. Scrap 
generated at the end of a product's useful life is referred to as "obsolete 
scrap;" in other studies it is frequently called postconsumer scrap, old 
scrap, or country scrap. 

When referring to stainless steel, it is understood that the heat- 
resisting alloys are always included because this is often the way such 
data are reported; any errors introduced by such data aggregation would be 
small since heat-resisting alloys amount to less than 2 percent of the stain- 
less steel shipments (1) . The term "domestic shipments" as used in this 
study covers net shipments as reported by the American Iron and Steel Insti- 
tute, which excludes intercompany shipments. Similarly, net imports are 
calculated by subtracting total exports from total imports of stainless steel 
mill products to the United States. 

Generally, initially reported data are often shown to six or more signi- 
ficant figures. After any allocation or adjustments, figures are rounded off 
to the nearest thousand or hundred tons . 

Industry Subsectors 

Figure 1 illustrates the flow of stainless steel products and stainless 
steel scrap between producers and consumers. Major elements include 

Blocks 1-2 . — Stainless steel producers involved in steelmaking and steel 
forming. The domestic shipments of stainless steel include ingots, semifin- 
ished steel mill products (such as billets and sheet bars) , and finished 
stainless steel mill products (such as sheet, strip, bars, wire and wire 
products) . Home scrap recycled in the steel mill is not included in the scope 
of this work. 

Block 3 . — Steel service centers, which account for about 35 to 40 percent 
of the shipments made by domestic stainless steel producers. 



Carbon 
steel 
scrap 
and other 
materials 



Imports of 
stainless 
steel scrap 



Jj 



LJ 



Stainless steel 
making 



u 



Stainless steel 
forming 



Exports 



Net 

imports of 
stainless — . 
steel mill 
products 



Imports 



Domestic 
purchases of 
stainless steel 
scrap 



Home scrap 



Domestic shipments of 
steel mill products 



Apparent domestic 
consumption of 
steel mill 
products 



a 



Domestic 

steel service 

centers 



m 



Domestic fabricators 
and manufacturers 



S\\ 



Apparent domestic 
consumption of „ 
manufactured 
products 



rT 



in 



i Prompt industrial 
I stainless steel 



Stainless 
steel 
scrap 
exports 



Recyclers 



or 



i 



scrap 



Domestic 
consumers 



Obsolete scrap 
generation 



Stainless steel product 
flow lines (semi-finished, 
finished, and consumer goods) 



Stainless steel scrap 
flow lines 



Obsolete 
stainless 



steel scrap 
recycled 



Uncollected obsolete 
stainless steel scrap 



FIGURE 1. - Diagram illustrating flow of stainless steel products and stainless steel 
scrap between producers and consumers. 



Block 4 . --Domestic fabricators and manufacturers, which, like the domes- 
tic steel mill service centers, rely to some extent on imports of stainless 
steel mill products. Such imports have typically amounted to less than 10 
percent of apparent domestic consumption. 

Block 5 . --Domestic consumers of stainless steel products made by fabri- 
cators and manufacturers of automobiles, appliances , utensils, etc. 

Block 6 . --Stainless steel recyclers , which collect prompt industrial and 
obsolete scrap for shipment to domestic consumers and for export. 

Data Sources 

Major published sources of data on stainless steel shipments include 

1. Net domestic shipments of stainless steel mill products (bars, sheet, 
strip, wire, etc.), by market classification, as published by the American 
Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) in their Annual Statistical Report (1) and 
other publications. 

2. Department of Commerce statistics on exports and imports (14) of 
stainless steel mill products by shape (bars, sheet, pipe, tube, etc.). 

3. Shipments of stainless steel mill products by alloy type as published 
in Metal Statistics (2). 

4. Bureau of Mines statistics on receipts of stainless steel scrap by 
consumers, largely stainless steel makers (13, May 1978, p. 15). 

Methodology 

Apparent Domestic Consumption Calculation 

Data published by the American Iron and Steel Institute show domestic 
shipments of stainless steel (including heat-resisting alloys) by produc- 
ers (1). Since obsolete stainless steel scrap could arise from products 
manufactured up to 20 or more years ago, statistics were collected on domes- 
tic shipments from 1950 to the base year, 1977. Such shipments by reporting 
members of AISI include exports. Domestic steel service centers are also 
involved in the export and import of stainless steel mill products which are 
reported by major mill product category by the Department of Commerce (14) . 
Because net imports of stainless steel products, indicated by N in the fol- 
lowing equations were not easily obtainable before 1964 and apparently were 
small based on discussions with industry personnel, net import calculations 
are based upon information and trend lines developed from 1964 to 1977. From 
such statistics net imports can be determined (total imports minus total 
exports). Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products (D) 
can then be derived by adding domestic shipments of stainless steel mill prod- 
ucts to net imports (fig. 1). 



Calculated details are provided in the next section entitled, "Apparent 
Domestic Consumption of Stainless Steel Mill Products." 

Estimates of Prompt Industrial Stainless Steel Scrap 

In fabricating and manufacturing operations, domestic consumers of stain- 
less steel mill products generate prompt industrial scrap. Published data on 
prompt industrial stainless steel scrap generation appeared to be lacking. 
While Bureau of Mines data report on the receipt of stainless steel scrap, 
such data are not disaggregated into prompt industrial and obsolete scrap. 
As a result, the prompt industrial stainless steel scrap generation (G) was 
estimated based upon apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill 
products for the base year 1977. The amount of such scrap generated indomes- 
tic fabricating and manufacturing operations has been estimated by product 
shapes consumed (bar, sheet, pipe, etc.), with each shape having a character- 
istic yield (Y) and yield loss (1-Y) . Such estimates of yield losses are 
based upon discussions with industry personnel. 

Total prompt industrial scrap generation (G proir?)t ) can be expressed by 
the following equation: 

G prompt = D 7 7 ( 1_Y av)77> (1) 

where (1-Y av ) 77 is the average yield loss to scrap in manufacturing consumer 
goods from stainless steel mill products for 1977. 

Estimates of Obsolete Scrap Generation 

After a product's useful life, obsolete scrap is generated, as indicated 
in figure 1. Typically, stainless steel scrap so generated was fabricated 
from mill products produced many years earlier. The approach used in esti- 
mating obsolete scrap generation involved calculating apparent domestic con- 
sumption of stainless steel manufactured products (fig. 1). Statistics on 
domestic shipments were plotted from 1950 through 1977, and an equation was 
then developed by linear regression of this data (least squares fit) to repre- 
sent domestic shipments by year. The form of this equation was 

D = Ao + BoT (2) 

where D represents domestic shipments, Aq and B are constants, and 

T = year minus 1900; for example, T = 50, 59, 63, and 77 for the years 1950, 
1959, 1963, and 1977, respectively. By plotting data on net imports over 
time, a similar equation was developed of the form 

N = A' + B'T (3) 

where N represents tons of net imports and A' and B' are constants. Typically, 
net imports have accounted for less than 10 percent of apparent domestic 
consumption. 



By adding domestic shipments (D ) to net imports (N) , one obtains appar- 
ent domestic consumption of steel mill products (D) : 

D = (Ao + A') + (Bo + B') T (4a) 



D = A + BT 
where A = Aq + A* and B = B + B 1 . 



(4b) 



For any given year, apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel 
manufactured goods can now be calculated in a three-step process: (1) deter- 
mining apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products from 
equation 4b, (2) estimating yield losses to scrap (D-Y av D) in converting 

steel mill products to manufactured goods, and (3) calculating stainless steel 
in manufactured goods (C g ) by subtracting yield losses to scrap calculated in 

step 2 from apparent domestic consumption of mill products found in step 1. 
As a result, in any year (j) apparent domestic consumption of consumer goods 
containing stainless steel (C g j ) can be expressed as follows: 

C gj = Dj -[(l-Y av )D]j (5a) 

or 

C g i = ( Y av D >i < 5b > 

Market classifications were then used, as published by the American Iron 
and Steel Institute, to form a basis for estimating manufactured or fabricated 
product lives. Two approaches can be taken to estimate the product lives: 

Approach A . — Estimating product lifetimes by market classification (auto- 
motive, appliances, utensils, cutlery, etc.) and then determining shipments of 
stainless steel products to this market sector in the year that the product 
was made. Thus, for an automobile with an average product life of about 10 
years, we would determine the amount of stainless steel that was consumed in 
the manufacture of automobiles in 1967 to determine the amount of obsolete 
stainless steel scrap generated from automobiles in 1977. Such an approach 
would demand determining apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel 
manufactured or fabricated products by market classification for each year 
that such products were manufactured that showed up as obsolete scrap in 1977. 

Approach B . — Classifying manufactured goods into two categories; namely, 
those with a short life expectancy of 10 ±5 years, and those with a long life 
expectancy of 20 ±5 years. One can then estimate the percent of manufactured 
goods made in each sector that either have a 10- or a 20-year life span. 
Using this approach, apparent domestic shipments and net imports of stainless 
steel fabricated products need be determined only for 1957 and 1967. 

If the distribution of steel mill products shipped to each major market 
classification remains constant over time, either of the above two approaches 
would give essentially the same results, assuming a consistent set of data is 



applied to the linear equations developed on apparent domestic consumption. 
That is, an estimate of a 15-year life for products in a given market classi- 
fication would be equivalent to assuming that 50 percent of the products have 
a 10-year life and 50 percent of the products have a 20-year life on the 
average . 

Except in a few instances, data on product lives by AISI market classifi- 
cation are extremely limited. Thus, there is little to recommend one approach 
over the other. As a result, approach B was chosen because (1) this approach 
reduced the number of calculations one had to perform on shipments by market 
sector by year, and (2) as better data become available on product lifetimes, 
it will be easier to update this study. The mix of short-term and long-term 
product lives used in a given market sector was largely based on judgments 
rendered by industry personnel. Where better information was readily avail- 
able (for example, lives of automobiles), such data were used. Designating 
the average life in years of products using stainless steel to be L, the obso- 
lete scrap generation rate (G obs ) in 1977 is given by apparent consumption of 
manufactured goods "L" years ago: 

G obs = C gt (6a) 

= 0f av D) t (6b) 

where t = 1977-L (t is the average year in which goods were manufactured that 
are being discarded today) . 

Total scrap generation (G) is then obtained by adding equation 1 for 
prompt scrap to equation 6b for obsolete scrap, or 

G = (D-Y av D) 77 + (Y av D) t (7) 

Scrap Generation Versus Collection 

As indicated in figure 1, only a fraction of the scrap generated is col- 
lected and the remainder remains uncollected. Data are published monthly by 
the Bureau of Mines on stainless steel scrap receipts by melters ( 13 ) . By 
neglecting inventory changes, receipts are assumed equal to consumption, S . 

o 

Scrap Imports and Exports 

Although data on exports of stainless steel scrap in 1977 were avail- 
able, there were no comparable statistics for the imports of stainless steel 
scrap. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce collects information on the 
total amount of ferrous scrap imported ( 14 ) and breaks down data on ferrous 
scrap on which import duties were and were not levied. Stainless steel scrap 
imports were estimated based upon these statistics and the judgments offered 
by scrap dealers and U.S. Department of Commerce officials. By adding esti- 
mated net scrap exports (S E ) to scrap consumption (S o ) , we obtain total 
domestic collection of scrap (S) : 

S = S o + S E . (8) 



10 



Estimates of Uncollected Stainless Steel Scrap 

The quantity of uncollected stainless steel scrap in 1977 (U) is then 
estimated simply as the difference between scrap collected in 1977 (S__) and 
scrap generated : 

,U = G + + G . - S__ (9a) 

pr ompt obs 7 7 

- (D - Y av D >77 + ( Y av D >t " S 7 7 (9b) 

where (D-Y V D) 77 = prompt scrap generation, 

(Y D) = obsolete scrap generation, 

a v t 

and S„„ = scrap collection. 

77 r 

Based on discussions with recyclers, a preliminary assessment of the main 
sources of uncollected scrap was undertaken. This included a limited survey 
of opinion by recyclers and other scrap industry experts as to the percent of 
obsolete scrap generated that was actually collected. Major sources of poten- 
tial error were then examined, and additional data needs were identified. 

APPARENT DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF STAINLESS STEEL MILL PRODUCTS 

Domestic Shipments 

Ingots produced by stainless steel melters are subsequently formed into 
semifinished products such as slabs, billets, or, in some cases, blooms. 
Because of economies achieved, these semifinished shapes can be produced in 
an alternative fashion by continuous casting, which has rapidly gained accept- 
ance over conventional ingot casting. Home scrap is generated as the semi- 
finished products are rolled in steel mills into final shapes such as bars, 
rods, sheets, strips, or plates. Such scrap is also generated when semifin- 
ished or partially finished products are sent to nonintegrated finishing 
operations, such as strip rerollers, wire drawers, or specialized pipe and 
tube makers. Since such scrap is typically handled by recyclers, it is 
classified as prompt industrial scrap rather than as home scrap and thus is 
included in the scope of this study. 

Since semifinished products have accounted for only about 5 percent of 
domestic stainless steel mill shipments, as reported by the AISI, the pre- 
dominant and most important steel mill shipments are finished steel mill 
products. The finished and semifinished steel mill products are shipped by 
truck or rail to distributors (steel service centers), manufacturers, fabri- 
cators, or exporters. 

In 1977, 1,860,000 tons of stainless and heat-resisting steels were 
poured, resulting in domestic shipments of 1,120,000 tons of finished prod- 
ucts (1). Most of the difference — 750,000 tons, or 40 percent of molten steel 
production — is home scrap; 676,000 tons of such scrap were melted in 1977. 
The difference is accounted for by slags, dusts, mill scale, and grinding 



11 



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1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 

FIGURE 2. - Domestic shipments of stainless steel. 



residues; some of these waste materials find their way back to the melting 
stage with or without intermediate treatment. Domestic shipments of stainless 
steel mill products as reported by the AISI (1) are plotted in figure 2 from 
1950 through 1977. A "best line" through the data points determined by linear 
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where D = 
minus 1900. 



D = 21.24 T - 595.9, (10) 

o 

thousand tons of domestic stainless steel shipments and T = year 

Net Imports 



Figure 3 shows Department of Commerce data (14) on net imports of stain- 
less steel mill products. Published information before 1964 was not readily 
available. A "best line" developed by linear regression ("least squares fit") 
through the data points yields the following equation: 



N = 6.007 T - 355.4 



(11) 



325-969 0-80-3 



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I 



1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 

FIGURE 3. - Net imports of stainless steel. 



1978 



1980 



1982 



where N = thousand tons of net imports of stainless steel mill products, and 
T = year minus 1900. 

Equation for Apparent Domestic Consumption 

Addition of domestic shipments (S) to net imports (N) gives apparent 
domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products (D) : 



D = 27.24 T - 951.3 



(12) 



Taking cognizance of the years over which the data support this equation, 
the relationship proves especially useful in calculations involving obsolete 
scrap generation. Apparent domestic consumption is used for estimating scrap 
generation, as discussed in the next section. 

SCRAP GENERATION AND COLLECTION 

Estimates of Scrap Generation 

Prompt Industrial Scrap 

In its Annual Statistical Report, the American Iron and Steel Institute 
(1) publishes net domestic shipments of stainless steel mill products (includ- 
ing heat-resistant alloys), as summarized in the first columns of table 1. 
Net imports derived from Department of Commerce data by major product category 
are then added to domestic shipments in table 1 to arrive at apparent domestic 
consumption of steel mill products. 

The semifinished products are distributed to finished steel mill product 
categories using a 60-percent yield. This yield is based on an average value 
calculated from AISI data for 1977 (1) on net shipments of stainless steel 
mill products (1,120,000 tons in 1977) divided by production of 1,860,000 tons 
of raw steel (that is, the first solid state after melting, including ingots, 
strand or pressure-cast blooms, billets, slabs, or other product forms). The 



13 



difference, amounting to 40 percent of the weight of semifinished products shipped 
to processors other than steel mills, is assumed to be prompt industrial scrap. 
Thus, 33,900 tons of steel-mill- type finished products are produced from semi- 
finished products (60 percent of 56.5), which simultaneously results in 22,600 tons 
of prompt industrial scrap being generated. 

TABLE 1 . - Apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products in 1977 

(Thousand tons) 





Domestic 
shipments 1 


Imports 

minus 
exports 2 


Apparent domestic consumption 


Product 


Steel mill 

products, 

semifinished 

and finished 3 


Finished 
products 

manufactured 
from 

semifinished 


Finished 
products 


Semifinished (ingots, steel 
castings, blooms, slabs, 


60.3 


-3.8 

> 44.6 
7 4.6 

> 21.8 
15.1 

> 25.8 


56.5 

95.1 
90.4 

146.4 
47.4 

790.6 


NAp 

2.8 
2.6 

4.2 
1.4 

22.9 


NAp 


Finished products: 
Wire products : 


24,7 
25.8 


6 97.9 


Total 


50.5 
85.8 






6 93.0 








Bars: 


37.8 
86.8 


5 150.6 


Total 


124.6 
32.3 






6 48.8 


Sheet and strip: 


22.6 

474.4 

4.8 

263.0 


6 813.5 




764.8 






1,118.3 


108.1 


1,226.4 


33.9 


1,203.8 



NAp Not applicable. 

1 AISI Annual Statistical Report, 1977 (1) . 

2 Steel Mill Products, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1977 (as 
reported in reference 1) . 

3 Apparent domestic consumption = shipments from U.S. mills plus imports minus 
exports. 

^Calculated by allocating semifinished product category shipments to finished prod- 
uct categories in proportion to tonnage of finished products and assuming a 
40 percent yield loss to scrap. The yield loss to scrap agrees with reported 
domestic shipments by AISI of 1,118,000 tons and crude steel production of 
1,862,000 tons in 1977. 

5 AISI identifies wire rod as a semifinished product. For convenience in estimating 
prompt scrap generation, wire rod is classified with wire products in this study. 

6 Addition of prior 2 columns of finished products. 

7 Includes stainless steel structurals which are not reported separately. 



14 



The 33,900 tons were then allocated to finished-product categories in 
proportion to apparent domestic consumption of finished steel mill products. 
For example, in table 1, 2,600 of the 33,900 tons is allocated to plate cate- 
gory as follows: 33.9 (90. 4)/ (1,226. 4 - 56.5) = 2.6. This is then added to 
the 90 , 400 tons of plates from domestic shipments and net imports to arrive 
at a calculated apparent domestic consumption of plates amounting to 93,000 
tons. The results of the allocation calculations for the other product cate- 
gories are also summarized in table 1, which shows total apparent consumption 
of steel mill finished products to be 1,203,800 tons in 1977. These finished- 
product categories and consumption tonnages are now used to calculate prompt 
industrial scrap generation. 

The stainless steel mill products are consumed in turn by manufacturing 
operations that produce prompt industrial scrap. Since data on scrap genera- 
tion from manufacturing operations were not readily available, prompt indus- 
trial scrap generation rates for stainless steel consumed were estimated by 
type of product (bar, sheet and strip, etc.) used in manufacturing operations, 
Table 2 shows stainless steel yield losses to scrap based on judgments or 
estimates made by manufacturers and other industry personnel. Based on these 
yield losses, table 2 also shows calculations on prompt industrial scrap 
generated. For example, a 15-percent yield loss to scrap applied to 97,900 
tons of stainless steel plates consumed in manufacturing operations results 
in 14,000 tons of scrap, as shown in the last column of table 2. 

TABLE 2. - Estimated stainless steel prompt scrap generation in 1977 

(Thousand tons) 



Stainless steel mill product 


Apparent 
domestic 
consumption 


Yield loss 
to scrap 


Estimated 

prompt 
industrial 

scrap 
generated 




97.9 
93.0 

150.6 
48.8 

813.5 

NAp 

60.3 


10.0 
15.0 
40.0 
10.0 
12.5 
NAp 

34.5 


9.8 
14.0 
60.2 




4.9 




101.7 


Total 


190.6 


Scrap generated outside of steel mills in 
producing finished products from semi- 
finished (for example, ingots, blooms, 


*22.6 


Total estimated prompt industrial 


NAp 


NAp 


213.2 



NAp Not applicable. 

Calculated by difference between total of 33,900 tons 

resulting from 56,500 tons of semifinished products 

steel mills; see table 1. 

Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. 



of finished products 
consumed outside of 



15 

After adding prompt industrial scrap produced from consumption of bars, 
sheet and strip, etc., total prompt industrial scrap generated from consump- 
tion of finished shapes is 190,600 tons. To this we add the 22,600 tons of 
prompt industrial scrap estimated earlier as resulting from conversion of 
semifinished steel mill products to finished forms. As a result, total prompt 
scrap generation is calculated to be 213,200 tons (table 2). 

Obsolete Scrap 

Production of Manufactured Goods 

As discussed on pages 12-14, estimates of prompt industrial scrap in 1977 
were calculated on the basis of yield losses occurring during the manufacture 
of consumer goods from stainless steel mill products. By calculating the dif- 
ference between prompt industrial scrap generation and apparent domestic con- 
sumption of stainless steel mill products, the amount of stainless steel 
actually entering the manufactured product can be estimated: 

{tons of stainless steel 1 f tons of stainless ] ["tons of prompt indus-1 
in manufactured productsj [steel mill productsj [trial scrap generatedj (13) 

At the end of a manufactured product's life, obsolete scrap is generated. 
To calculate the tons of obsolete scrap generated, one needs estimates of the 
tons of stainless steel originally used in the manufacture of goods being 
discarded in 1977. 

Recognizing that the methodology used in this study calls for distribu- 
ting lives of manufactured goods into short-term (10-year lives) and long-term 
(20-year lives) categories, estimates were first made of the tons of stainless 
steel entering goods manufactured in 1967 and 1957, starting with table 3, 
which shows published statistics on apparent domestic consumption of steel 
mill products by market classification for 1967. Two adjustments were made 
to table 3. In estimating prompt industrial scrap generation in 1977 at the 
beginning of this section, yields of 60 percent were assumed from semifinished 
to finished steel mill products. Similarly, in making the first adjustment to 
table 3, the semifinished products of table 3 were allocated to finished 
stainless steel mill product categories in table 4 by using a 60-percent 
yield. Steel mill goods resulting from the semifinished product were dis- 
tributed in proportion to apparent consumption of finished steel mill prod- 
ucts. A second adjustment was then made because of a lack of data for making 
lifetime estimates for goods in five market classifications: (1) Steel for 
converting and processing, (2) steel service centers and distributors, 
(3) exports (reporting companies only), (4) nonclassified shipments, and 
(5) net imports. As a result, tonnage consumed in these sectors was allocated 
to the other market sectors in proportion to their apparent domestic consump- 
tion as shown in table 3. Results of these two adjustments are shown in 
table 4 as the adjusted distribution of stainless steel mill product consump- 
tion by market classification. Apparent domestic consumption from table 3 and 
adjusted distribution from table 4 are summarized in the first two numerical 
columns of table 5 . 



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19 

To determine the tons of stainless steel used in manufactured goods, we 
calculate scrap generated in the manufacturing process (such as prompt indus- 
trial scrap generated in 1967) as was done for the year 1977 at the beginning 
of this section. For example, in the industrial fastener sector, 24,536 tons 
of wire products, 15,965 tons of bars, and 2,306 tons of sheet and strip were 
consumed with estimated prompt industrial scrap generation rates of 10, 40, 
and 12.5 percent, respectively. Table 5 shows that in 1967 this resulted in 
prompt industrial scrap generation in the "industrial fasteners" sector of 
9,128 tons (0.10 x 24,536 + 0.40 x 15,965 + 0.125 x 2,306). Thus, of the 
42,807 tons of steel mill products consumed in the fasteners sector, 9,128 
became scrap and the difference of 33,679 became a part of manufactured goods 
in 1967 as summarized in table 5. Similar calculations were performed to 
determine the stainless steel consumed by goods manufactured in the other 
market classifications. Results, as shown in table 5, indicate that manufac- 
tured goods in 1967 consumed 713,181 tons of the 871,422 tons of apparent 
domestic consumption, with the difference of 158,241 tons reporting to scrap. 
The last column of table 5 shows the percent distribution of stainless steel 
by consuming sector. 

Finally, an adjustment was made to eliminate biases that could be intro- 
duced if the year 1967 were an unusually high or low year for apparent domes- 
tic consumption. From the regression equation (equation 12) developed earlier 
in this study, a rounded value for apparent domestic consumption was calcu- 
lated to be 874,000 tons, compared with the published data of 871,400 tons 
as shown in table 5 . Tonnage shipments by markets shown in table 6 were 
arrived at by multiplying 874,000 by the percent distribution by market 
classification shown in table 5. 

i 

Similarly, starting with published data for the year 1957 as shown in 
appendix A, this same procedure was followed to estimate consumption of stain- 
less steel in manufactured goods with results summarized in table 6. However, 
there is one exception; namely, data on exports and imports on stainless steel 
mill products were not readily available for 1957. The regression equation on 
imports extrapolated back to 1957 indicates minus 13,000 tons of net imports 
(in other words exports) in 1957, which is about 3 percent of domestic ship- 
ments. Because it was suspected that exports were relatively small and in 
the absence of better available data, a value of zero was assigned to net 
stainless steel imports in 1957. This is equivalent to assuming apparent domes- 
tic consumption is equal to domestic shipments in 1957. 

Product Lifetimes 

With few exceptions, published data on product lives by market classifi- 
cation were not available. Product lives were estimated by determining through 
discussions with manufacturers and recyclers what fraction of the goods manu- 
factured in a market sector in a given year could be expected to have a 10-year 
(±5 years) life and what fraction could be expected to have a 20-year (±5 
years) life. For example, in the appliances, utensils, and cutlery classifi- 
cation, 90 percent of the products were estimated to have a 10-year average 
life and 10 percent a 20-year average life, and all products in the automotive 
sector were estimated to have a 10-year life (10) . The results of this study 
on lifetime estimates in the other market classifications are shown in table 7. 



20 



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22 



Obsolete Scrap Calculation 

By multiplying 1967 consumption of 108,367 tons in the "appliances, uten- 
sils, and cutlery" classification (table 6) by 0.90 and the 1957 consumption 
of 57,630 tons by 0.10, one arrives at 97,530 and 5,763 tons of obsolete scrap 
respectively for 10-year life and 20-year life categories. This gives a total 
of 103,293 tons of obsolete stainless steel scrap generated in this category 
as shown in table 7. Results of applying the same procedure to the other 
market sectors are also summarized in table 7, showing total estimated obso- 
lete scrap generation to be 648,170 net tons, which is rounded off to 648,000 
net tons in further calculations. 

Total Stainless Steel Scrap Generated 

Table 8 shows the estimated total of prompt industrial and obsolete scrap 
generated in 1977 to be 861,000 tons. The fraction of this scrap that is 
actually recycled is estimated after determining stainless steel scrap exports 
and imports. 

TABLE 8 . - Estimated total stainless steel scrap generation 

in 1977 (thousand tons) 

Prompt industrial scrap (table 2) 213 

Obsolete scrap (table 7) 648 

Total 861 

Scrap Collection (Published Data) 

Scrap Receipts 

In its monthly Mineral Industry Surveys ( 13) , the Bureau of Mines shows 
statistics gathered on stainless steel scrap. The statistics of interest are 
classified under the category of receipts of scrap by melters from brokers, 
dealers, and outside sources which amounted to 424,000 tons in 1977 as 
described in appendix E. 

Foreign Trade 

Part of the stainless (and heat-resisting alloy) scrap collected domes- 
tically is exported, with exports in 1977 amounting to about 75,000 net tons, 
as shown in table 9. It appears that 1977 was a normal year in terms of 
stainless steel scrap exports. No indication was found that the chromium 
shipped out of the country contained in stainless steel was any less desirable 
than that which was recycled domestically. 



23 

TABLE 9. - U.S. stainless steel scrap exports (thousand tons) 1 

1974 35 .0 

1975 76.9 

1976 112 .2 

1977 74.7 

x Data reported in gross tons by Teplitz ( 11 ) , multiplied by 
1.12 to obtain net tons. 

Imports of stainless steel scrap are included in U.S. Department of 
Commerce statistics shown in table 10, as part of the 65,956 tons of ferrous 
scrap on which an import duty was levied. Scrap dealers and contacts at the 
U.S. Department of Commerce have commented that stainless and heat-resisting 
alloys imports are a "very small" portion of that scrap, but data have not 
been found to quantify such opinions. Thus, three approaches were followed: 

1. The phrase "very small" was interpreted to mean that 10 percent 
(or less) of 66,000 net tons on which imports are based is stainless steel 
scrap, to arrive at a value of 6,600 net tons of stainless steel scrap. 

2. Table 10 shows that iron scrap subject to duty accounts for about 

11 percent of ferrous scrap imports, which is approximately the same as alloy 
and stainless steel production as a percent of total U.S. steel production 
(including alloy, stainless, and carbon steel grades). AISI statistics indi- 
cate that stainless and alloy steel shipments together have been about 10 per- 
cent (±2 percent) of total steel shipments. Using those ratios for domestic 
shipments of steel mill products and assuming they apply to scrap, the follow- 
ing procedure was followed: 

Historical records CO indicate that stainless steel production in the 
United States over the past 10 years has been about 7 to 14 percent alloy 
steel production. If it is assumed that ferrous scrap imports on which duties 
were levied (66,000 tons) exhibit the same ratio of alloy to stainless, one 
arrives at stainless steel scrap imports of 4,600 to 9,240 net tons (0.07 x 
66,000 to 0.14 x 66,000). 

3. It is noted that U.S. stainless steel production over the past 

29 years has accounted for 0.9 to 1.5 percent of total steel production. If 
ferrous scrap imports are in the same ratio, calculate 0.9 to 1.5 percent of 
the 616,000 tons of total ferrous scrap imports to be stainless steel, or 
5,500 to 9,200 tons. Combining the three approaches indicates that a likely 
value for stainless steel scrap imports would fall between 5,000 and 9,000 
tons. Seven thousand tons is used in further calculations, which is about 
10 percent of the weight of the ferrous imports on which duties are levied. 
Clearly better import data are needed to confirm these rather subjective 
estimates . 



24 



TABLE 10. - Ferrous scrap imports in 1977 (tons) ( 14 ) 

Tin plate 12 , 500 

Iron scrap not subject to import duty 537,067 

Iron scrap subject to import duty 1 65,956 

Total 1977 imports 615 , 523 

Alloys containing more than any of the following 
were subject to import duty: 0.2 percent Cr, 
0.1 percent Mo, 0.3 percent W, and 0.1 percent V. 

Total Prompt Industrial and Obsolete Scrap Collected 

Upon addition of net exports to receipts by melters, total prompt indus- 
trial and obsolete scrap collected is about 492,000 net tons, as shown in 
table 11. 

TABLE 11. - Domestic scrap collection (thousand tons) 

Prompt industrial and obsolete scrap received by melters 
(domestic receipts) *424 

Exports 2 75 

Imports 7 

Net exports 68 

Total 492 

1 Bureau of Mines ( 13 , May 1978) . 

2 American Metal Market (2) . 

3 Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimate based on Department of Commerce 
data. 

UNRECOVERED CHROMIUM VALUES 

Calculation of Unrecovered Fraction 

The quantity (U) of stainless steel values lost or otherwise not recycled 
can be estimated as the difference between (S) scrap collected (492,000 tons) 
and (G) scrap generated (861,000 tons). Few direct data are available on this 
unrecovered scrap (U) amounting to 369,000 tons. The following sections sum- 
marize some findings from discussions with recyclers and manufacturers on 
chromium values that appear to be unrecycled. 

Prompt Industrial Scrap 

Little prompt industrial scrap is unrecycled since it is not economic for 
metal fabricators to accumulate rather than sell the scrap they generate. 
Generally they arrange with a scrap dealer to sell the high-value materials 
(such as well-segregated solids) provided the scrap dealer takes other scrap 
as well. This was found to be a common practice for both open spot bids and 
long-term contract agreements. 



25 



Industrial recovery of chromium from the 400-series stainless and heat- 
resisting alloys has been the subject of some controversy. The chromium in 
stainless steel is of much less value than the nickel. Before the AOD process 
was developed, industry contacts indicate that about 15 percent of the total 
chromium content of the steelmaking furnace charge was lost in slag and dust. 

Today, however, chromium recovery is in the 92- to 96-percent range in 
the duplex electric arc furnace-AOD process, regardless of the ratio of scrap 
to virgin elements. Well-segregated 400-series stainless steel scrap sells 
for nearly twice the price of carbon steel scrap and is thus a relatively high 
valued material that is unlikely to be downgraded. However, two factors 
hinder the recycling of prompt 400-series stainless steel scrap: transporta- 
tion costs and contamination. Transportation costs for scrap can be substan- 
tial, since the few melters are located mainly in the Midwest or on the East 
Coast. This geographic imbalance between scrap supply centers and scrap con- 
sumption centers slows down trade in 400-series scrap in times of low prices. 
This does not mean that the scrap will not be recycled, but it may be allowed 
to accumulate in a scrap yard until prices rise to a level where it becomes 
economical to sell. 

Contamination is a major concern of the recycler. Prompt industrial 
scrap is usually well segregated into the 400 and 300 series with the latter 
often segregated into molybdenum-containing and non-molybdenum-containing 
types. In addition, nickel-chromium steels are almost always segregated and 
recycled with only small losses since nickel has been a relatively high valued 
metal. Nickel is recovered upon remelting, losses to slags are small, and 
furnace dust recycling technologies now coming into increasing use also 
recover the nickel that previously was not recycled from pollution control 
equipment dusts and sludges. In addition, proper segregation of nickel- 
containing stainless steel (mainly the 300 series) permits the recovery of 
other valuable elements, such as molybdenum in the popular 316 grades. 

The only occasional exception is "mixed turnings and borings," which 
sometimes contain not only various stainless grades but also alloy and carbon 
steel and perhaps even some free cutting brass. 

Here there is a problem of identification as well as contamination. A 
rail car or truck of such material is a heterogeneous mix that is difficult 
to sample in a statistically acceptable fashion. One approach that has been 
adopted is to crush and blend the scrap; the resulting product can be sampled 
and meaningfully certified and shipped as such or blended to customer 
specifications . 

Based on discussions with scrap dealers and melters, turnings represent 
less than 25 percent of the total amount of prompt industrial scrap, and at 
least three-quarters of the turnings are clean enough to be recycled to the 
stainless steel melting furnace. This leaves less than 14,000 tons of poten- 
tially poor quality turnings; some may be exported, but most such turnings 
appear to be recycled domestically as part of the iron and carbon steel scrap 
amounting to approximately 45 million tons a year. With the exception of 
these turnings, nearly all prompt industrial stainless steel scrap is recycled 
within a relatively short time (less than a few years) after generation. 



26 



0.15 



i Range in values 
1929-38 



LU 

o 

DC 
Hi 
Q. 

I 

I- 
X 

o 

LU 

5 




1980 



Source: American Iron and Steel Institute Survey Data from D. Blickwede, 
Bethlehem Steel, Bethlehem, Pa. 

FIGURE 4. - Residual elements in carbon steel manu- 
factured in the United States. 



Downgrading 

Figure 4 shows that the 
chromium content of carbon 
steel produced in the United 
States for the past several 
decades has been about 
0.05 ± 0.01 percent. Thus, 
one would expect that carbon 
steel scrap would have a 
similar chromium content 
when goods are discarded 
at the end of their lives. 
However, table 12 shows the 
chromium content of pur- 
chased carbon steel scrap to 
contain an estimated 0.12 
percent chromium. Thus, the 
estimated chromium picked up 
by the 32,149,000 tons of 
purchased carbon steel scrap 
being recycled is about 
22,500 tons of contained 
chromium [32,149,000 (0.12 - 
0.05)/100]. Assuming the 
chromium comes from stain- 
less steel scrap containing 
000 tons of stainless steel 
Some of this con- 



16.7 percent chromium, it is calculated that 135 

scrap was unintentionally mixed with carbon steel scrap. 

tamination may be due to the prompt industrial stainless steel turnings (up to 

14,000 tons) discussed earlier, but the major source of this contamination 

appears to be obsolete scrap . 



In addition, figure 4 shows that the residual chromium in steel manufac- 
tured in the United States has risen from about 0.04 to 0.05 percent in the 
1950' s and early 1960 's to about 0.06 percent in 1977. This amounts to an 
increase of about 0.001 percent per year. If the increase is attributed to 
chromium contamination from stainless steel scrap, which seems likely, the 
amount of stainless steel downgraded can be estimated by assuming an average 
total steel production of about 120 million tons per year, which when multi- 
plied by 0.001/100 amounts to 1,200 tons of contained chromium, or about 
7,000 tons of stainless steel assuming it contains the average 16.7 percent 
chromium. Upon adding these 7,000 tons to the 135,000 tons found above, we 
calculate that about 142,000 tons of stainless steel may be downgraded to 
carbon steel scrap; of this, up to 14,000 tons may arise from prompt indus- 
trial stainless steel turnings, and the difference is estimated to be obsolete 
scrap . 



27 



TABLE 12 . - Chromium in purchased carbon steel scrap in 1977 



Scrap grade 


Receipt of scrap by 
melters from brokers, 
dealers, and other 
outside sources, 
thousand tons 


Average 
chromium 
content , 
percent 


Total 
chromium 
content, 
tons 


Low-phosphorus plates and punchings 


1,810 
1,891 
5,953 
2,178 
6,181 
2,315 
147 
206 
1,933 
1,505 
2,694 
1,910 
3,426 


0.06 
.09 
.10 
.18 
.07 
.19 
.09 
.05 
.40 
.03 
.20 
.03 
.12 


1,086 
1,702 
5,953 




3,920 


No . 1 and electric furnace bundles . 

No . 2 and other bundles 

Electric furnace, 1 foot and under. 

Slag scrap (Fe content 70 percent) . 


4,327 
4,167 

132 

103 
7,732 

451 
5,398 

573 
4,111 




32,149 


NAp 


39,655 



NAp Not applicable. 



Obsolete Scrap Collection 



As already 
Small household 
the mainstream o 
Based on discuss 
stainless steel 
never recovered; 
stainless valves 



indicated, not all obsolete scrap generated is collected, 
items such as cutlery, flatware, and toasters usually join 
f municipal solid waste and are generally not recovered, 
ions with recyclers, we estimate that possibly half of the 
used in underground mining and drilling for oil and gas is 

stainless steel screws, decorative trim on buildings, and 

and fittings are not normally recovered. 



Estimates based on discussions with recyclers indicate that about 80 per- 
cent of all junked automobiles are collected; the remaining 20 percent are 
abandoned in backyards or remote sites. However, between 10 and 20 percent 
of the collected junked automobiles are baled with only the wheel covers and 
hubcaps recovered. Shredders do a slightly better job at recovering the 
stainless steel. However, since the 400-series fraction is magnetic, it is 
lost with the fragmented steel portion, which is the reason shredded steel 
(automotive) scrap has about 0.2 percent chromium versus the carbon-steel 
scrap average of 0.12 percent chromium. The nonferrous (nonmagnetic) stream 
is sent to a metal recovery plant from about 75 percent of domestic shredding 
operations; the other 25 percent apparently send the nonmagnetic stream to 
landfill operations. A multistage, sink-float process produces fractions con- 
taining mainly light organics, heavy rubber and plastics, aluminum, and 
heavier nonmagnetic metals like stainless steel, zinc, and copper. A rotary 
furnace melts and separates the zinc, and the stainless steel is separated 
from the copper with varying degrees of efficiency by hand picking. The cop- 
per goes to refineries; the stainless steel, which contains about 2 percent 
copper and other contaminants and is recovered with about an 80 percent 



28 



efficiency, is sold to a stainless steel melter. Overall, this gives a recovery 
factor for stainless steel in automobiles of about 30 to 40 percent. Based upon 
these rather subjective opinions, table 13 was developed in an attempt to quantify 
and reconcile the apparent large quantity of obsolete scrap from which chromium is 
not recovered. The largest single sector showing unrecovered stainless steel scrap 
is the automotive sector, followed by the appliances, utensils and cutlery sector. 

TABLE 13 . - Estimated obsolete stainless steel scrap recovered in 1977 



Market classifications 



Forgings 

Industrial fasteners 

Construction, including maintenance 

Contractors ' products 

Automotive. . 

Rail transportation 

Shipbuilding and marine equipment . . 

Aircraft and aerospace 

Oil and gas industry 

Mining, quarrying, and lumbering... 

Agricultural , 

Machinery, industrial equipment, 

and tools 

Electrical equipment 

Appliances, utensils, and cutlery.. 
Other domestic and commercial 

equipment 

Container, packing and shipping 

materials 

Ordnance and other military 

Total 

NAp Not applicable. 

Downgraded or unrecovered . 



Estimated total 
obsolete scrap 
generation, 
thousand tons 



7 

21 

18 

26 

241 

4 

5 

24 

1 

2 

2 

114 

28 

103 

35 

4 
13 



648 



Obsolete scrap 
generated that 
is ;recycled for 
recovery of Cr 



Percent 



60-80 
20-50 
20-60 
20-70 
30-40 
60-80 
60-80 
50-80 
40-60 
40-60 
40-60 

50-70 
40-60 
10-30 

10-30 

60-80 
10-30 



NAp 



Thousand 
tons 



4-6 
4-10 
4-11 
5-18 

72-96 
2-3 
3-4 

12-19 
0-1 
1-1 
1-1 

57-80 
11-17 
10-31 

4-11 

2-3 
1-4 



193-316 



Obsolete scrap 
unrecycled for 
Cr recovery, 
thousand tons 



1-3 

11-17 
7-14 
8-21 
145-169 
1-2 
1-2 
5-12 
0-1 
1-1 
1-1 

34-57 
11-17 
72-93 

24-31 

1-2 
9-12 



332-455 



Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. 

Reconciliation 



Reported receipts and exports of prompt industrial and obsolete stainless steel 
scrap are about 492,000 tons as indicated in table 14. Such a value falls within 
the calculated range of 392,000 to 515,000 tons of stainless steel recovered for 
recycling of chromium values. Based on the 492,000 tons as a "best estimate" for 
stainless steel scrap recovered for chromium values, one concludes from table 14 
that stainless steel which is unrecovered or downgraded amounts to 369,000 tons, of 
which an estimated 142,000 tons was downgraded and 227,000 tons went unrecovered. 
Based on an average chromium content of 16.7 percent in the 369,000 tons, 
62,000 tons of chromium went unrecovered in 1977. 



29 



TABLE 14 . - Reconciliation of reported values with calculated values 
of stainless steel scrap, recovered for chromium values 
in 1977 (thousand tons) 



Source of data 


Unrecovered 


Downgraded 


Recovered 

for 

recycling 

of Cr 


Total 
generated 


As determined by this study: 


Nil 
3 204-327 


1 1A 

128 


2 199 
193-316 


213 




648 


Total 


204-327 

NA 

227 


142 

NA 
142 


392-515 

H92 
492 


861 


Reported receipts by melters and 
net exports of prompt industrial 


NA 


"Best estimate" used in further 


861 



NA Not available. 
1 Estimated to be no greater than 14. 
^Calculated by the difference between 14 and 213 . 
Calculated by the difference between columns (2 + 3) and 4. 
^Errors in estimating imports may add up to 58,000 tons of the 492,000 tons 
shown (see text) . 



Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. 

Estimates of Potential Error 

Scrap Imports 

As discussed in the section on scrap collection and foreign trade, a 
likely value for stainless steel scrap imports was 7,000 tons in 1977, but 
the value could be as high as 66,000 tons. If scrap imports are increased by 
59,000 tons, it would increase uncollected domestic scrap by a like amount. 

Yields in Manufacture 



The magnitude of other potential errors can be best evaluated from an 
examination of equation 9 for uncollected scrap: 



U 



< D " Y av D ) 7 7 + < Y avD) t " S 77 



(9b) 



Substituting apparent domestic consumption of steel mill products (D) for the 
years 1977 and the year (t) (t = T in equation 4b) into equation 9 and assum- 
ing an average yield in manufacturing invariant with time: 



U = A + 77B - Y (A + 77B) + Y av (A + 64B) 



= A + 77B - Y B (77 - t) - S 7 _ 

av 77 



7 7 



(14) 



30 



The parameters A and B have been determined from a linear regression 
equation for apparent domestic consumption and are treated as constants. 
Domestic shipments account for more than 90 percent of apparent domestic 
consumption. Thus, we believe that little accuracy is lost by lack of net 
import data on stainless steel mill products before 1964. From appendix B 
we see that the average calculated yield, Y , ranges from 0.80 to 0.83 in 
the years 1957 to 1977. Some industry respondents have expressed the belief 
that such a value is of the right order of magnitude, while others have 
expressed alternative views indicating a range in opinion that Y av - 0.8 may 
be off by ±0.1. Recognizing that parameter B has a value of 27.24 (thousand 
tons per year) and t of about 64 (see appendix D) , the impact on U is given 
as a change in U, or AU: 

AU = B(77-t) AY av 

= (27.24) (77-64) (0.1) 

= 35,000 tons of uncollected stainless 

steel scrap. (15) 

When compared with our "best value" of 369,000 tons of unrecovered (or 
downgraded) stainless steel scrap., it seems that the potential error in yield 
values would impact our results by under 10 percent. 

Prompt Industrial Scrap Generation 

Although most of the yield loss in manufacturing goods from steel mill 
products can be accounted for by scrap, discussions with manufacturers indi- 
cate there are other losses such as grinding swarf which might amount to a few 
percent (at most) of consumption. If it is assumed that a loss rate of 2 per- 
cent can be applied to all steel mill shipments in 1977 (1,120,000 tons), it 
is calculated that such losses may be 22,000 tons. This would reduce prompt 
industrial scrap generation and total uncollected scrap by a like amount. 

Average Lifetimes 

While few industry sources have questioned the lifetime estimates for 
short-lived goods containing stainless steel (those having lives of 10 years 
or so) , a few contacts have expressed some concern about the long-lived prod- 
ucts (goods having lives of about 20 years) . Basically these contacts feel 
that some stainless steel goods in the market classifications shown in table 7 
would last more than 20 years. Thus, they suspect the average year for manu- 
facturing such long-lived goods was some time prior to 1957 if the goods were 
discarded in 1977. Opinions expressed exhibit an upper limit to average life 
cycles in the long-lived product category of 25 years; in other words, long- 
lived stainless steel goods were allotted a range of lives from 15 to 35 years. 
The impact of such an assumption is estimated as follows: 



31 

If they appeared as obsolete scrap in 1977, goods with 25-year aver- 
age lives were manufactured in 1952. From equation 12, estimated 
apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill products was 
465,000 tons in 1952. Based on an average yield from steel mill 
products to manufactured goods of 0.8 (appendix B) , stainless steel 
entering consumer goods in 1952 amounted to 372,000 tons (465 x 0.8). 
As a result the total tons of stainless steel in the column labeled 
"1957" of table 6 would be adjusted downward from 492,143 to about 
372,000 tons, or a reduction of 24 percent. A similar downward 
adjustment of 24 percent would be made in table 7 for "long-lived 
goods" which would reduce obsolete scrap generation as well as total 
scrap generation (G) by 31,000 tons (rounded from 128,757 x 0.24). 
As seen in equation 9, uncollected stainless steel scrap in 1977 
would be reduced by a similar amount. 

Thus, a 5-year increase in the average lifetime of the long-lived goods 
would reduce uncollected scrap (U) in 1977 by 31,000 net tons. 

Imports and Exports of Manufactured Goods 

Obviously imported goods containing stainless steel that are manufactured 
abroad, such as automobiles, contribute to obsolete scrap generation. If 
goods manufactured domestically are exported, such goods would typically not 
add to domestic obsolete scrap generation at the end of the products' lives. 
Imports and exports of manufactured goods containing stainless steel have been 
neglected in this study. Because data were unavailable on the amount of 
stainless steel in manufactured goods that are exported or imported it is 
impossible to quantify any potential errors that may occur by neglecting such 
exports and imports. However, except in a few instances (for example, auto- 
mobiles, utensils, machinery) imports or exports containing large amounts of 
stainless steel have not been identified. Based on industry contacts, it is 
estimated that manufactured goods exported or imported would be well under 
20 percent and more likely under 10 percent. The impact of a 10-percent 
increase in imports of manufactured goods containing stainless steel would 
increase obsolete scrap generation by a like amount. Since obsolete scrap 
generation is estimated to be 648,000 tons (table 8), a 10-percent increase 
in imports would add about 65,000 tons to uncollected domestic scrap. 

Corrosion 

Losses resulting from corrosion, erosion, and general wear are extremely 
difficult to estimate, and no data have been found with regard to stainless 
steel on which to base a calculation. In an earlier study, Nathan Associ- 
ates (8-9) estimated that uncollected carbon steel scrap in inventory corrodes 
by about 0.36 percent per year. Stainless steel is expected to corrode less, 
but is is not known how much less. In addition, we have seen no estimates of 
erosion and wear of stainless steel parts in service. If a 1-percent annual 
loss rate resulting from corrosion, erosion, general wear, etc., is accepted, 
this would amount to about 10,000 tons annually (that is, 1 percent of approxi- 
mately 1 million tons of stainless steel scrap used in manufactured goods) . 
However, it should be recognized that such a calculation is based on almost no 
data and could be subject to a potentially large error. 



32 



Superalloy Downgrading 

As discussed, some chromium losses occur by downgrading of stainless 
steel scrap to carbon steel. In a prior study (5) an opinion gathered by 
discussions with superalloy dealers indicated that downgrading of superalloys 
to stainless steel scrap also occurs, but only rarely. Based on these discus- 
sions, it is estimated that such downgrading amounted to less than 10,000 tons 
of superalloys, with average chromium contents in the same range as in stain- 
less steels. This has the effect of increasing uncollected stainless steel 
scrap by up to 10,000 tons. 

Allocation of Steel Mill Products 

Although it is believed that the methodology (involving allocation of 
semifinished steel mill products, shipments to service centers, net imports, 
etc., to other categories) leads to only small potential errors in determining 
scrap generation, this procedure may involve significantly larger potential 
errors in determining the relative importance of one market classification as 
opposed to another in terms of uncollected scrap. Examination of tables 3 
and 4 shows that the largest unknown involves shipments by steel service 
centers, which account for about 35 to 40 percent of apparent domestic con- 
sumption of stainless steel. Clearly, better data are needed on shipments by 
steel service centers before doubts on the relative amounts of stainless steel 
shipments to different sectors of the economy can be eliminated. 

Future Work 

The potential errors in the factors leading to estimates in (U) (unre- 
cycled or unrecovered scrap) are compared in table 15. It is seen that poten- 
tial errors can be up to 10 to 20 percent of the estimated 369,000 tons of 
uncollected scrap and that the most significant factors are — 

1. Neglecting imports and exports of manufactured goods containing 
stainless steel. 

2. Estimating stainless steel scrap imports. 

3. Estimating scrap losses in manufacturing. 

4. Lifetime estimates for long-lived goods containing stainless steel. 

Obviously if the price of chromium rises substantially, a larger fraction 
of chromium scrap generated would be expected to be collected. The effect of 
chromium prices on chromium scrap recycling has not been analyzed in this 
study. 

Outside of the category of erosion, corrosion, etc., where little data is 
available, the other factors examined appear to add only a small contribution 
to unrecovered chromium. 



33 



TABLE 15 . - Potential error summary 1 (thousand tons) 



Potential error summary (AU equation 15) 



Change in uncollected 
scrap (U) 



10-percent increase or decrease of net imports of 
manufactured goods 

Imports of scrap (limits in range) 

Potential errors in yield losses to scrap (1 - Y v ) in 
manufacturing operations 

Increase in life cycle of "long-lived" goods containing 
stainless steel by 5 years 

Prompt industrial scrap yield losses to scrap reduced 
by 2 percent and other losses (for example, grinding 
swarf increased by 2 percent) 

1-percent annual loss rate resulting from erosion, 
corrosion, etc 

Downgrading of superalloys to stainless steel 

Downgrading stainless steel to carbon steel scrap 




•'■Base case summary for 1977: 

Generated (table 8) 

Collected (table 11) 

Uncollected or downgraded (U) . . 



861 
492 
369 



Projections 

Using equation 9b, projections can be made based on historical consump- 
tion patterns. Substituting the relationship for apparent domestic consump- 
tion of stainless steel (equation 4b) in the future year T' (expressed, for 
example, as T 83, '90, and so on) and in the year t, 



U=A+BT'-Y B (T*-t) 



77 



(16) 



Recognizing that T'-t is the life cycle for goods containing stainless steel, 
or about 13 years (appendix D) , and that Y av - 0.82 (appendix B) , B = 27.24, 
and A = -951.3 (see equation 12), equation 16 yields these values: 



U = -951.3 + 27.24 T' - 0.82 (27.24) (13) - S T , 
= 27.24T 1 - 1,241.68 - S T , 



(17a) 
(17b) 



v^ s/ 

scrap generation scrap collection 



Based on this equation, stainless steel scrap generation in 1977 was 
856,000 tons (27.24 x 77 - 1,241.68), compared with 861,000 tons as shown in 
table 8. The difference is largely due to using reported data in table 8 as 
a basis for determining apparent domestic consumption in 1977 rather than a 
value calculated by linear regression for 1977 using equation 4b. Table 15 



34 



shows that in 1977 scrap recovered (492,000 tons) amounts to 57 percent of the 
861,000 tons generated [S = 0.57G = 0.57 (27.24T - 1,241.68)]. If this same 
ratio holds in future years, 



S T » = 0.57 (27.24T 1 - 1,241.68). 



(18) 





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1,400 
1,300 
1,200 


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600 


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1975 

FIGURE 5. - 



1980 



1985 



1990 



Trendline projections of apparent domestic 
consumption and uncollected and downgrad- 
ed stainless steel scrap. 



Substituting equation 18 
into equation 17b yields 
the uncollected scrap in 
the year T ' : 

U = 11.71T' - 533.92. (19) 

Equations 12 and 19 are 
plotted in figure 5 showing 
that the trendline projec- 
tion to 1990 indicates 
apparent domestic consump- 
tion of 1,500,000 tons and 
uncollected or downgraded 
stainless steel scrap of 
520,000 tons. 

The most significant 
factor that may impact the 
amount of stainless steel 
recycled in the mid-1980' s 
and later is believed to be 
the degree of recycling of 
automobile catalytic con- 
vertor shells made from 
type 409 stainless steel. 
If removed from junk auto- 
mobiles to recover the cata-. 
lyst, the shells may well be 
segregated for recycling. 
If not removed, this 409 
stainless steel would 
largely report to the magne- 
tic fraction in a shredding 
operation, which would hin- 
der subsequent recovery for 
chromium values. Industry 
contacts indicate that the 
convertor shell weighs about 
35 pounds and that there may 
be other ways of meeting 
emission control laws. 
Nevertheless, if we assume 
that all U.S. -made auto- 
mobiles (about 10 million 



35 

cars a year) will have a 35-pound stainless steel convertor shell, about 
175,000 tons of junk convertor shells can be expected annually in the 1990 f s 
(assuming the shell lasts the life of the automobile). Clearly, this repre- 
sents a significant source of chromium. 

SUMMARY 

This study focused on estimating uncollected stainless steel scrap. Home 
scrap is largely recycled and thus was not in the scope of this study. 

Figure 6 summarizes flows of stainless steel products and scrap as deter- 
mined from this study. Uncollected scrap was calculated as the difference 
between domestic stainless steel scrap collected (as reported by the Bureau of 
Mines) and the scrap generated. Estimates of prompt industrial scrap gener- 
ated were obtained from apparent domestic consumption of steel mill products . 
It was found that nearly all prompt stainless steel industrial scrap generated 
is collected. Obsolete scrap generation calculations were made by estimating 
product lifetimes and the quantity of stainless steel used to manufacture the 
product. It was found that most of the stainless steel scrap that is unrecov- 
ered arises from obsolete scrap. 

As shown in figure 6, about one-third of the obsolete scrap appears to go 
unrecovered. It is suspected, but not substantiated, that most of this unre- 
covered scrap arises from stainless steel used in appliances, utensils, and 
cutlery. 

Of the estimated 421,000 tons of obsolete scrap recovered, it is esti- 
mated that 142,000 tons are downgraded or unintentionally mixed with carbon- 
steel scrap. Most of this loss of chromium values apparently arises from junk 
automobiles. Addition of this 142,000 tons downgraded to 227,000 tons unre- 
covered yields 369,000 tons of stainless steel unrecovered and downgraded. 

Overall, figure 6 shows that about three-quarters of the obsolete and 
prompt industrial stainless steel scrap generated is recycled, but not always 
for chromium recovery. Chromium values lost in 1977, assuming 16.7-percent 
chromium in stainless steel, are estimated to be 62,000 tons (369 x 0.167). 
Trendline projections to 1990 indicate that the uncollected and downgraded 
stainless steel fraction can be expected to rise to 520,000 tons with about 
87,000 tons of contained chromium. A major unknown involves estimating the 
amount of automotive catalytic convertor shells (made largely of the magnetic 
409 stainless steel grade) that will be recycled. 

Major data gaps identified in this study that can affect the above con- 
clusions by 10 percent or more on the amount of stainless steel scrap uncol- 
lected include (1) stainless steel contained in imports and exports of manu- 
factured goods, (2) imports of stainless steel scrap, (3) estimates in yield 
losses to scrap in the manufacture of stainless steel goods from mill products, 
and (4) lifetime estimates of long-lived stainless steel goods. 

Better data are needed in these sectors to quantify more definitively the 
amount of uncollected stainless steel scrap. In addition, it would appear 
worthwhile to examine whether there are any technological problems in recycling 
catalytic convertor shells from junk automobiles. 



36 



Imports of 

stainless steel 
scrap, 7 



Carbon 
steel 
scrap 
and other 
materials 



er 



Stainless steel 
making (melters) 



Raw steel, 
1,860 



ET 



Domestic receipts of 
stainless steel 
scrap, 424 



Home scrap 



Stainless steel 
forming 



Exports 



Net 

imports of 
stainless 
steel mill ~ 
products, 
108 



I 



Imports 



1 



Domestic shipments of 
steel mill products, 
1,118 



Apparent domestic 
consumption of steel 
mill products, 
1,226 



Domestic 

steel service 

centers 



R 



Consumed by 

domestic fabricators 

and manufacturers, 

1,204 



Apparent domestic 
consumption of 
manufactured products, 
1,013 



^ 



ET 



I 



Prompt industrial 
stainless steel 
scrap, 213 



Stainless steel 

scrap exports. 

75 



492 



Recyclers 



Domestic 

consumers 

inventory 

of goods 



Stainless steel product 
flow lines (semi-finished, 
finished, and consumer 
goods) 

Stainless steel 
scrap flow lines 



Obsolete 
scrap - 

generation, 
648 



Obsolete 
stainless steel 



scrap recovered, 
421 



Downgraded to 
carbon steel scrap 
142 



Uncollected obsolete 
stainless steel scrap, 

227 



142 



Total 369 



FIGURE 6. - Estimated flow of stainless steel products and stainless steel 
scrap between producers and consumers in 1977; numbers show 
estimated flows in thousand net tons of stainless steel. 



37 



REFERENCES 

1. American Iron and Steel Institute. Annual Statistical Reports (sections 

on raw steel production and shipments — steel products) . Washington, 
D.C., 1957-77. 

2. American Metal Market Co. Steel. Ch. in Metal Statistics (published 

annually). Fairchild Publications, New York, 1957-77. 

3. Curwick, L. R., W. A. Petersen, and H. V. Makar. Availability of Criti- 

cal Scrap Metals Containing Chromium in the United States. Superalloys 
and Cast Heat- and Corrosion-Resistant Alloys. BuMines IC 8821, 1980. 

4. Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc. Specifications for Iron and 

Steel Scrap. Washington, D.C., 1975, pp. 13-16. 

5. Kusik, C. L., and C. B. Kenahan. Energy Use Patterns for Metal Recycling. 

BuMines IC 8781, 1978, pp. 112-124. 

6. McGannon, H. E. (ed.). The Making, Shaping and Treating of Steel. 

United States Steel Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pa., 9th ed., 1971, 
pp. 1163-1202. 

7. Parker, E. R. (Committee Chairman). Contingency Plans for Chromium 

Utilization. National Materials Advisory Board, National Research 
Council, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 1978, 374 pp. 

8. Phoenix Quarterly. Potential Scrap Harvest Grows. V. 10, No. 3, 

Fall 1978, p. 3. 

9. Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc. Iron and St^el Scrap — Its Accumulation 

and Availability. Washington, D.C., 1977, pp. 78-80. 

10. Shonka, D. B., A. S. Loebl, and P. D. Patterson. Transportation Energy 

Data Book. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Report ORNL-5320, 2d ed., 
1977, 567 pp. 

11. Teplitz, B. (ed) . American Metal Market. Nickel Stainless Supplement. 

Fairchild Publications, New York, Nov. 10, 1978, p. 20. (Export data 
are credited to Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel.) 

12. U.S. Bureau of the Census. Steel Mill Products. Current Industrial 

Reports, 1977, pp. 18-21 (table 11). 

13. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Iron and Steel Scrap. Mineral Industry Surveys, 

Monthly, 1957-77. 

14. U.S. Department of Commerce. U.S. Imports for Consumption. Document 

FT246, 1977, p. 273. 



38 



APPENDIX A. —BACKGROUND 

Stainless Steel Types and Chromium Content 

Most grades of stainless steel have been classified by the American Iron 
and Steel Institute into three broad series — 300, 400, and 200: 

300 Series — The nonmagnetic 300 series (table A-l) is the most widely 
used form of stainless steel. The 18-8 alloys (referring to their chromium 
and nickel content, respectively) belong to this series. Besides chromium and 
nickel, other elements may be present in varying proportions, such as molyb- 
denum in grades 316 and 317, and columbium in grade 347. This series of 
alloys is used in a great variety of applications in the construction indus- 
try, kitchen utensils, hospital equipment, chemical plants, refineries, and 
the aerospace industry. 

400 Series — The 400 series (tables A-2 and A-3) is magnetic and consists 
of straight-chrome grades of stainless steel containing 10 to 27 percent 
chromium. This series of alloys contains various amounts of minor additions 
but little or no nickel . Some grades are f erritic (very low carbon) , while 
others are martensitic. This series has a variety of uses, such as for 
decorative purposes, cutlery, automobile mufflers, and heat exchangers. 
Type 409 stainless steel is used exclusively for automobile catalytic con- 
vertor shells; its production is exceeded only by the all-purpose nickel- 
chromium 304 grades. 

200 Series — The less common 200 series (table A-l) is nonmagnetic. In 
this series, manganese is partially substituted for nickel in order to retain 
the austenitic structure, resulting in a composition containing 3.6 percent 
nickel, 16 to 20 percent chromium, and 5 to 10 percent manganese. 

Annual stainless steel production by AISI number can be found in Metal 
Statistics (2_) . By multiplying the median chromium composition shown in 
tables A-l, A-2, and A-3 by production in a given year, the average chromium 
composition is calculated to be 16.7 percent in both 1977 and 1957. This 
compares favorably with a 1974 value of 16.4 percent used in a chromium study 
for the National Materials Advisory Board (7_, p. 129). The average value of 
16.7 percent chromium in stainless steel was used throughout this study. 

Although there are a large variety of stainless steel types, in any one 
year only about five of them account for about two-thirds of total production, 
as shown in table A-4. 



39 



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42 



TABLE A-4 . - Major types of stainless steel produced (thousand tons) 



Type 



1957 1967 1977 



301 , 

302 and 302B, 
304 , 



316 and 31 6L, 

409 , 

410 

430 , 



Neg 

163 

144 

63 

Neg 

49 

247 



108 
Neg 

523 

104 
Neg 
55 

135 



183 
Neg 
x 674 

144 
2 211 
Neg 
94 



Subtotal 

Other types, including heat resisting. 
Total 

Five largest types as percent of total 



666 
378 



925 
525 



1,306 
560 



1,044 
64 



1,450 
64 



1,866 
70 



Neg indicates type was not among the 5 largest types produced that year. 

includes 304L. 

2 Data from American Iron and Steel Institute directly. 

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute, as reported in Metal Statistics (2) 



Scrap Classifications 

Scrap is classified according to two criteria: 
(including cleanliness) and physical form. 



chemical composition 



Scrap is priced according to its metal value as seen from the user's 
standpoint. Therefore, care is normally taken not to mix incompatible grades, 
such as those with and without molybdenum. On the other hand, no attention is 
paid to alloying elements (carbon, zirconium, or titanium) that are automati- 
cally controlled in the melting process. 

For the purpose of international trade, various categories of stainless 
and heat-resisting alloy scrap are. officially recognized, based on their 
chemistry; these are listed in table A-5 . Domestic trade proceeds on a case- 
by-case basis, with all the specifics taken into consideration (physical prop- 
erties, volume, appropriate location). 

From the physical appearance standpoint, scrap can be classified into 
three categories (in decreasing order of available tonnage) : light scrap, 
turnings and borings, and solids. Turnings may be shipped in bulk, or they 
may be crushed, blended, and even briquetted for ease of handling. 



43 



TABLE A-5. - Speci fications for stainless steel and 

heat-resisting alloy scrap 



Obole (95) Ferro-Nickel-Chrome Iron shall 
consist of alloys containing: 

Chrome minimum 12 percent 

Nickel minimum 12 percent 

Copper maximum 50 percent 

Free of other foreign elements. Material shall 
be sold on basis of description and analysis. 
This category excludes all stainless steel 
grades which are covered elsewhere. 

Pekoe (97) Chrome-Nickel-Manganese shall 
be of the following analysis: 

Chrome 16-19 percent 

Nickel 3.5-6 percent 

Manganese 5.5-10 percent 

Material to be free of harmful contaminants 
and be prepared to consumer's specifica- 
tions 

Sabot (90) 10-8 Stainless Steel shall con- 
sist of clean scrap containing: 

Nickel minimum 7 percent 

Chromium minimum 16 percent 

Molybdenum maximum 50 percent 

Copper maximum 50 percent 

Phosphorus maximum 045 percent 

Sulphur maximum 03 percent 

Otherwise free of harmful contaminants. Ma- 
terial to be prepared to individual consumer's 
specifications. 

Taffy (99) Stainless Steel Castings. Submit 
analysis, size of pieces, and physical 
description. 



Ultra (100) 18-8 Stainless Steel Turnings. 
Machine shop grade for direct mill delivery 
shall contain: 

Nickel minimum 7 percent 

Chromium minimum 16 percent 

Must be free of all non-ferrous metals, non- 
metallics, excessive iron, oil, and harmful 
contaminants. 

Ultra Crush (101) Short or Crushed Stainless 
Steel Turnings shall conform chemically to 
machine shop grade specifications. 
Rusten (102) 11-14 Percent Straight 
Chrome Stainless shall contain: 

Chrome 11-14 percent 

Phosphorus maximum 03 percent 

Sulphur maximum 03 percent 

Nickel maximum 50 percent 

Otherwise free of harmful contaminants. Ma- 
terial to be prepared to individual consumer's 
specifications. 

Rusthirty (103) 14-18 Percent Straight 
Chrome Stainless shall contain: 

Chrome _ 14-18 percent 

Phosphorus maximum 03 percent 

Sulphur maximum 03 percent 

Nickel maximum 50 percent 

Otherwise free of harmful contaminants. Ma- 
terial to be prepared to individual consumer's 
specifications. 



Source: Institute of Scrap Iron and Steel, Inc. (3) 

Industry Sectors 
Recyclers 



Recyclers upgrade and sell a wide variety of metallic materials. In 1977 
about 417,000 tons annually of stainless steel and heat-resisting alloy scrap 
was sold to melters. The size of a recycling company ranges from individual 
operators to large public companies with international subsidiaries or asso- 
ciated counterparts. In addition, recyclers handle nearly all of the scrap 
imports and exports . 

Neither prompt industrial scrap nor obsolete scrap normally goes directly 
from the sources (for example, machine shop for new scrap, consumer for old 
scrap) to the final user (melter or export) . One or more middlemen perform 
essential economic and technical tasks in collecting, shipping, blending, 
sorting, processing, and certifying all sorts of scrap items. Each may act 
as a scrap collector, broker, dealer, agent, trader, or integrated processor, 
depending on the particular contract and the extent of his financial and 
physical resources. This report considers all these activities as aspects 
of recycling. 



44 



Few recyclers are equipped to melt scrap. Those who are usually prepare 
master alloys of certified analysis for foundry use. The normal scrap prep- 
aration methods are confined to physical preparation (such as sorting, blend- 
ing, and crushing of turnings) and occasional chemical analyses. A more 
detailed description of stainless steel and heat-resisting alloy scrap prep- 
aration and contamination problems is given in Bureau of Mines Information 
Circular 8781 (5). 

Steel Service Centers 

Steel service centers are retailers of steel products. Even those that 
belong to a subsidiary of a domestic melter usually buy steel from several 
sources. They sell to a broad range of customers who typically cannot justify 
buying the minimum-order sizes required by the mills . 

In the process of cutting to desired dimensions, slitting, or burning 
plates, steel service centers generate an average of less than 1 percent 
scrap. The only operation that may generate an appreciable quantity of scrap 
on a percentage basis is plate burning; however, by nesting orders and making 
the best use of the plate area, steel service centers are able to limit scrap 
losses to 5 to 10 percent versus an average 15 percent if the customer does 
it himself. 

Based on discussions with recyclers, the scrap generated by steel service 
centers is generally not returned directly to the producing mill. Rather it 
goes through recyclers before being exported or shipped to a particular melter. 

Fabricators and Maintenance Shops 

As used in this report, the term "fabricators and maintenance shops" 
applies to all firms involved in the transformation of finished stainless 
steel shapes into finished industrial or consumer goods. A wide variety of 
process operations generate scrap as a byproduct of fabricating plate, bar, 
rod, wire, sheet, and strip products; these operations include flame cutting, 
turning, lathes and automatic screw machines, precision drilling, reaming, 
boring, wet and dry grinding, stamping, forging, and extrusion. 



45 



APPENDIX B. --PROMPT INDUSTRIAL SCRAP GENERATION RATES 

Table B-l shows estimated prompt industrial scrap generation for 1957, 
1967 and 1977 to range from 17 to 20 percent of apparent domestic consumption 
of stainless steel mill products. Table B-l was developed from the following 
information: 

1. Consumption of stainless steel mill products is found in table 1 for 
1977. In addition, consumption of stainless steel mill products and of stain- 
less steel in manufactured goods is found in table 5 for 1967 and in appendix C 
for 1957. 

2. Prompt industrial scrap for 1977 is calculated in table 2. 

3. Prompt industrial scrap for 1957 and 1967 is calculated by the dif- 
ference between stainless steel in manufactured goods and stainless steel mill 
products consumed. 

TABLE B-l. - Prompt industr i al scrap generation for selected years 



Item 



Apparent domestic consumption, thousand tons: 

Stainless steel mill products 

Stainless steel contained in manufactured goods 

Estimated prompt industrial scrap generated .. thousand tons 
Prompt industrial scrap generation as a proportion of 
apparent domestic consumption of stainless steel mill 

products percent 

Average calculated yields in manufacturing goods 
from stainless steel mill products do . . . 



1957 



620 
496 
124 



20 
80 



1967 



871 
713 
158 



18 
82 



1977 



1,226 

1,013 

213 



17 
83 



Sources: Reference 1 for domestic shipments and reference 14 for net imports, 
which together represent apparent domestic consumption (see equa- 
tion 12). All other values are Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. 



46 



APPENDIX C. —STAINLESS STEEL CONSUMPTION FOR MANUFACTURED GOODS IN 1957 

As for the year 1967, the amount of stainless steel entering manufactured 
goods is calculated starting with the data in table C-l, showing the apparent 
domestic consumption of steel mill products. Table C-2 shows the distribution 
of stainless steel mill products consumed by selected market classification. 
Table C-3 shows the calculation for the quantity of stainless steel entering 
manufactured goods. In addition, the percent distribution of stainless steel 
consumed is shown by market classification which is used in developing table 6, 



47 



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50 



APPENDIX D. —AVERAGE AGE OF OBSOLETE GOODS 

About 648,000 tons of obsolete scrap was generated in 1977 (table 7). 
The average year (t) in which goods were manufactured that appeared as obso- 
lete scrap in 1977 can be calculated, recognizing that the average yield (Y ) 
from stainless steel mill products to manufactured goods is about 81 percent 
between 1957 and 1967 (appendix B) . Thus, apparent domestic consumption (D t ) 
in the year (t) was about 800,000 tons of stainless steel mill products 
(648/0.81). Substituting D t = 800 into equation 12 and solving, we find 
T = 64.3; thus, the average year (t) in which the goods containing stainless 
steel were manufactured is about 1964. 



51 



APPENDIX E. —OBSOLETE AND PROMPT INDUSTRIAL SCRAP COLLECTED 

Stainless steel scrap data for 1977 of interest to this study were pub- 
lished by the Bureau of Mines in the May 1978 Mineral Industry Surveys of 
Iron and Steel Scrap ( 13 ) . Companies reporting scrap shipments are "manufac- 
turers of pig iron and steel ingots and castings," which are labeled as 
"Melters" in this study. Receipts of scrap by melters from "brokers, dealers, 
and other outside sources" reported by the Bureau of Mines totaled 424,000 
tons in 1977. These receipts are thought to be largely purchased scrap 
according to the Bureau of Mines staff, and thus are included in the category 
of prompt industrial and obsolete scrap. The Bureau of Mines also reports 
receipts of stainless steel scrap "from other own company plants" as well as 
shipments by melters, which are not considered new supply. These receipts 
roughly balance reported shipments, with each amounting to about 10 to 15 per- 
cent of receipts from brokers, dealers, etc. Receipts and shipments are 
largely intercompany transfers of scrap between steel mills. Since scrap 
generated within steel mills is not considered in the scope of this study, 
it has been excluded from the estimates. In short, prompt industrial and 
obsolete scrap collection is estimated to be 424,000 tons in 1977. 



„ „ „ INT.-BU.OF MINES, PGH..P A. 24693 

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1980 - 325-969 




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